Console Gaming is not Going Anywhere
Every video game generation has predictions of the video game console going away, to be replaced by the next big trend. One of the first victims of this prediction was the Nintendo dedicated portable console. Supposedly, no one was going to buy a dedicated portable console anymore because of the power of the smartphones. And yet, Nintendo did a great job of selling dedicated consoles. As of April 2022, Nintendo has sold nearly 76 Million 3DS consoles worldwide (Source: Statista.com). Not bad for a console that would be made irrelevant by the Smart Phone. The successor to the 3DS console, the Nintendo Switch, has become one of the top-selling consoles of all time, with worldwide sales of nearly 108 Million as of March 31, 2022 (Source: Gematsu.com). This total includes the portable mode-only version, the Nintendo Switch Lite.
The Sony Playstation 4 is another console success story, with sales of nearly 117 million worldwide as of April 2022 (source Statista.com). These sales numbers are approaching the all-time sales records for consoles, currently held by the world-conquering Playstation 2 at 158 Million worldwide as of 2013 (source: Wikipedia.com).
Flash forward to sales of the PS5 and Xbox Series X, which continue to sell briskly. Both consoles are still fairly difficult to obtain nearly 2 years after release. Of course, chip shortages and supply chain issues have contributed to the supply/demand imbalance. Nevertheless, both consoles continue to sell at numbers that have exceeded all previous console sale numbers.
So what happened to the predictions that the Smart Phones would replace everything? Well as it turns out, people are buying dedicated consoles in addition to gaming on their phones. The current prediction is that cloud gaming will mark the end of consoles. Cloud gaming is definitely going to be a big thing. This is true, particularly for mobile, where 5G networks have made console-quality games on the phone a better experience. Xbox will make streaming through an app on the TV or a dedicated dongle a reality very soon. Amazon Luna is already there. The way I see it though, cloud gaming has 2 major flaws that will never be overcome completely:
Network Lag. No matter how good your internet connection is, it will always be subject to lag and outright outages.
Data Caps. This is a big one. Playing 4K quality gaming via streaming will eat up your data cap like nobody’s business. That’s fine for limited play sessions, but not as a full-blown replacement for gaming consoles.
What is my Prediction for the Future of Gaming?
So to recap, mobile gaming and cloud gaming will be big players, but not the replacement many pundits believe them to be. The real future is already happening now at breakneck speeds.
The End of Physical Media: Both the PlayStation and Xbox brands already have digital-only versions of their console (albeit coupled with a less potent form for Xbox Series S). Even when customers have a choice of which method to purchase their games, they choose digital a vast majority of the time. Physical discs are often just a key for unlocking the digital game anyway, as they still must be installed on the hard drive. Nintendo is an exception to this, but perhaps not for long.
Subscription Services: Now that new games are selling for $70+ each, subscription services make a lot more sense. Services like Xbox Game Pass, PlayStation Plus, and even Nintendo Online make the need to purchase a lot of games less necessary. Sure you don’t own the game, but many won’t care about that. If a game is in a subscription service, it greatly increases the number of players playing online.
Cloud Gaming: Hey! Didn’t I just say that cloud gaming won’t replace the consoles? I still believe this to be true. However; cloud gaming will transform games on consoles in ways that we haven’t even seen yet. Xbox has already dipped its digital toes using the tech in unexpected ways. They made the Xbox One from 2013 remain relevant by providing streaming of select current generation games on the console (provided that you have a Game Pass Ultimate subscription). I foresee cloud exclusive games as the true future of cloud gaming, making cloud gaming a platform in and of itself. I see cloud gaming as a great way to experiment with new types of games. I see this working in conjunction with traditional games that work with the hardware capabilities of the console.
In Conclusion
The future is Digital-Only Games, Subscription Services, and Cloud Gaming as an enhancement and not a complete replacement. Don’t get me wrong, Cloud Gaming may be enough of a replacement for some people, but the majority of players will still have some type of dedicated console connected to a television. This will still be the case 7 years from now, when we have whatever Nintendo has out, the PlayStation 6 and whatever crazy name Xbox comes up with next. Come back in 7 years and let me know if I was right!
